Comparison of Short and Long-Term Energy Performance and Decarbonization Potentials between Cogeneration and GSHP Systems under MARKAL Scenarios

In response to the call for global carbon peaking and neutrality, this study mainly focuses on comparison of energy-related emissions performance two promising heating, ventilation, air-conditioning technologies (a ground source heat pump (GSHP) cogeneration systems) over both short (2021–2030) long (2031–2050) periods, considering UK decarbonization plans. The simulation model building with GSHP system is validated by actual heating energy data in 2020 2021, yearly deviations only 0.4–0.5%. results show that performed better than a scenario when there was no electricity plan future. However, under all MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) scenarios, much terms reduction which can achieve 47.8–84.4% maximum 97.5% emission savings long-term respectively, compared system. Due truth plans will be optimized executed future, more recommended short- periods potentials (e.g., reducing achieving carbon-related environmental protection).